2021 The American Express odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that nailed six golf majors

PGA West in La Quinta, California, has been hosting tour events since 1987 and on Thursday the PGA West Stadium Course and the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course will host over 150 of the best golfers on the planet for the 2021 American Express. Phil Mickelson won this event twice in the early 2000s and nearly won for a third time when he lost to Adam Long by a stroke in 2019. Both Mickelson and Long are listed at 45-1 in the latest 2021 American Express odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

Patrick Cantlay is currently the 10th-ranked player in the world and he’s the 14-1 favorite in the latest PGA Tour odds for The American Express 2021. Other top contenders include Patrick Reed (16-1), Brooks Koepka (18-1), Scottie Scheffler (18-1) and Tony Finau (20-1). Before locking in your 2021 The American Express picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour in June. In fact, it’s up over $12,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

In the final standard PGA event of 2020, McClure nailed Viktor Hovland’s win at +2500 in his best bets. That was one of many huge calls he made last year. After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a massive +5500 return. 

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. McClure hit a top-five bet (+1200) on Doc Redman at the Wyndham Championship, finishing up over $700 on his best bets. Those are just some of his recent big returns. 

In all, the advanced computer model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns. 

Now that The American Express 2021 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 The American Express predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at The American Express 2021: Brooks Koepka, a four-time major champion and one of the top Vegas favorites at William Hill, barely cracks the top 10. Koepka had a strong showing at the Masters in November, earning a seventh place finish at Augusta National. However, Koepka missed the cut at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December, and he’s finished outside the top-25 seven times in his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour. 

Koepka’s inconsistent performances can be directly attributed to his inability to find the fairway off the tee. The seven-time PGA Tour champion enters this week’s event ranked 214th in driving accuracy percentage (52.60), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in The American Express 2021 field.

Another surprise: Sungjae Im, a 22-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Im has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After winning the 2020 Honda Classic early last season, Im returned from the shutdown to post six top-15 finishes, including a T-2 at the Masters in November.

Im continued that success and started 2021 off with a bang, tying for fifth at the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Im tied for 12th at The American Express in 2019 and then tied for 10th at this event last year. He’s an exceptional driver of the golf ball who ranked 33rd in strokes gained: off-the-tee in 2019, 20th in 2020 and enters this week ranked 12th in the category. 

How to make 2021 The American Express picks

Also, the model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins The American Express 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 The American Express leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up over $12,000 since the restart, and find out. 

2021 The American Express odds (via William Hill)

Patrick Cantlay 14-1
Patrick Reed 16-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Scottie Scheffler 18-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Matthew Wolff 25-1
Abraham Ancer 30-1
Kevin Na 33-1
Russell Henley 33-1
Rickie Fowler 40-1
Paul Casey 40-1
Cameron Champ 40-1
Phil Mickelson 45-1
Adam Long 45-1
Adam Hadwin 50-1
Lanto Griffin 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Patton Kizzire 55-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Si-Woo Kim 55-1
Zach Johnson 60-1
Emiliano Grillo 60-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Charles Howell 60-1
Aaron Wise 60-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Alex Noren 70-1
Erik Van Rooyen 70-1
Chris Kirk 70-1
Cameron Davis 70-1
Russell Knox 80-1
Doc Redman 80-1
Talor Gooch 80-1
Sepp Straka 80-1
J.T. Poston 80-1
Joel Dahmen 80-1
Charley Hoffman 80-1
Cameron Tringale 80-1
Lucas Glover 80-1
Matt Jones 90-1
Tom Hoge 90-1
Kevin Streelmam 90-1
Francesco Molinari 100-1
Brendan Steele 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Chez Reavie 100-1
Scott Piercy 100-1
Nick Taylor 100-1
Peter Malnati 100-1
James Hahn 100-1
Maverick McNeal 100-1
John Huh 100-1

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