2021 Sony Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that nailed six golf majors

Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii will host the 2021 Sony Open beginning on Thursday and it’s a stark contrast from the Plantation Course at Kapalua on the first leg of the two-week Hawaii swing. Whereas Kapalua is wide open and undulating, Waialae features tight fairways and is generally flat. However, Harris English will still hope that all the momentum that he’s built in the 2020-21 PGA Tour season — culminating in a win last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions — can help him to the top of the 2021 Sony Open leaderboard.

English is at 16-1 in the latest 2021 Sony Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook, just behind co-favorites Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa at 14-1. Daniel Berger (20-1), Hideki Matsuyama (22-1) and Sungjae Im (22-1) are all near the top of this week’s PGA Tour odds board as well. Before you make your 2021 Sony Open picks, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour in June. In fact, it’s up over $13,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

In the final standard PGA event of 2020, McClure nailed Viktor Hovland’s win at +2500 in his best bets. That was one of many huge calls he made last year. After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a massive +5500 return. 

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. McClure hit a top-five bet (+1200) on Doc Redman at the Wyndham Championship, finishing up over $700 on his best bets. Those are just some of his recent big returns. 

In all, the advanced computer model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2021 Sony Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 Sony Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Sony Open 2021: Collin Morikawa, one of the favorites at 14-1, barely cracks the top five. Morikawa was one of the hottest players on tour last season, capping that run by winning the 2020 PGA Championship in August. He finished a respectable T-7 last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but he’s failed to crack the top-40 in four of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. 

Morikawa’s inconsistent performances can be directly attributed to his putting. The 23-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 231st in total putting (371.4), 220th in strokes gained: putting (-.753) and 125th in overall putting average (1.619), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Sony Open 2021 field.

Another surprise: Cameron Smith, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s one of the 2021 Sony Open picks you should be all over. Smith is the defending Sony Open champion after beating Brendan Steele in a playoff last season and the 27-year-old Australian is currently the No. 29 player in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Smith has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last five PGA Tour starts, including a T-4th finish at the Zozo Championship and a T-2nd at the Masters. Smith’s putter was on fire last year at Waialae Country Club, gaining over two strokes per round on the greens on his way to the championship. Entering the week, he ranks 25th on the PGA Tour for 2020-21 in strokes gained putting per round (0.788).

How to make 2021 Sony Open picks

Also, the model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins the 2021 Sony Open? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Sony Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up over $13,500 since the restart, and find out. 

2021 Sony Open odds (via William Hill)

Collin Morikawa 14-1
Webb Simpson 14-1
Harris English 16-1
Daniel Berger 20-1
Hideki Matsuyama 22-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Joaquin Niemann 25-1
Cameron Smith 28-1
Ryan Palmer 30-1
Kevin Kisner 30-1
Abraham Ancer 30-1
Russell Henley 33-1
Adam Scott 33-1
Billy Horschel 35-1
Matt Kuchar 35-1
Zach Johnson 40-1
Sergio Garcia 40-1
Lanto Griffin 45-1
Brendon Todd 45-1
Sebastian Munoz 50-1
Emiliano Grillo 50-1
Marc Leishman 50-1
Jason Kokrak 50-1
Charles Howell 50-1
Erk Van Rooyen 50-1
Brian Harman 50-1
Patton Kizzire 66-1
Keegan Bradley 66-1
Kevin Na 66-1
Talor Gooch 66-1
Si-Woo Kim 70-1
Chez Reavie 70-1
Carlos Ortiz 70-1
Matthew NeSmith 80-1
Mackenzie Hughes 80-1
Russell Knox 80-1
J.T. Poston 90-1
Brandt Snedeker 90-1
Stewart Cink 100-1
Scott Piercy 100-1
Takumi Kanaya 100-1
Rory Sabbatini 100-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Cameron Davis 100-1
Branden Grace 100-1

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